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千亿体育游戏官网|登月队长解密Google X

千亿体育-There are few people more qualified to talk about shaping the future than Google’s Astro Teller. His official title the oh-so-Googley “Captain of Moonshots.” His day job is running Google X, which the company calls its “moonshot factory.” It’s where Google GOOG -0.30% is developing self-driving cars, Glass (its glasses-like wearable computer), Loon (a project to deliver Internet access worldwide through high-altitude balloons), Makani (an effort to generate energy through high-flying wind turbines), and ingestible nanoparticles that would detect cancer and other diseases. Teller works closely with CEO Larry Page, which Fortune named 2014 businessperson of the year, and Sergey Brin, the Google co-founder who oversees X and other special projects. He recently spoke with Fortune about his lab’s approach to breakthrough innovation.说道到塑造成未来,阿斯特罗o泰勒少有输掉。他的月头衔是谷歌 “登月队长”——一个极具谷歌风范的称呼;他的日常工作是负责管理Google X实验室的运营,谷歌将其称作“登月工厂”。在这里,谷歌正在研发无人驾驶汽车、谷歌眼镜、Loon项目(通过高空气球获取网际网路服务)、Makani项目(通过高空风轮机发电)以及用作检测癌症和其他疾病的纳米胶囊。

在工作上和泰勒密切配合的有谷歌首席执行官拉里o佩奇(《财富》杂志2014年年度商人),以及谷歌牵头创始人、管理着Google X和其他一些专业项目的谢尔盖o布林。最近,泰勒拒绝接受了《财富》杂志的专访,讲解了Google X如何提供突破性创意。Fortune: How do moon shots come together at Google X?《财富》:Google X的“登月”项目是怎么来的?Well, with the caveat that it’s not simple, I think that there are some principles, or some ways of seeing, at least, things that don’t work.事前声明一下,这并不非常简单,但我实在在看来那些无法匹敌的事情时我们最少有几条原则。You have to have three things in order for it to conceptually be a moon shot. That doesn’t mean we’ll necessarily do it, but it means necessarily we won’t do it if it doesn’t have these three things.要从概念上沦为“登月”项目,得不具备三个要素。

这并不是说道有了这三个要素我们就一定会去做到这件事,它的意思是如果没这三个要素我们就一定会去做到。The first one is that it’s a huge problem. That sounds pretty obvious, but it’s incredibly not obvious in fact.首先,它得是一个根本性问题。这看起来是显而易见的事情,但实质上这一概念模糊不清的令人难以置信。

Then the second thing is that there has to be some kind of radical proposed solution. It should be a science fiction-sounding product or service. Obviously whether it really sounds like it comes out of [Isaac] Asimov isn’t important. What’s important is that we be not treading the same ground that other people have tread before because thinking that we’re going to be smarter or better resourced or work harder than people who’ve come before us is just not a good bet.其次,得有人明确提出某种保守的解决方案。这种产品或服务听得一起得看起来科幻小说里的东西。似乎,它听得一起否知道像来自艾萨克o阿西莫夫的科幻小说并不最重要。


最重要的是,我们无法步别人的后尘,因为实在自己比以前那些人聪慧,享有更佳的资源,或者代价更加多希望的点子一点也不靠谱。Then the third one is some reason to believe that this isn’t just pie in the sky. We would call this breakthrough science or tech.最后,我们有理由坚信它不是空中楼阁。我们将其称作突破性科学或技术。

This could be something we’ve discovered. It could be something someone else has discovered. It could be something that has worked in one domain but has never been transplanted to this other domain. There are lots of different ways of ending up having an “Aha!” moment where you believe that something looks nearly impossible might not be impossible.这种科技有可能来自于谷歌,也有可能来自于他人。它有可能早已在某个领域充分发挥了起到,但未曾重制到其他领域。


在很多情况下,我们最后都会恍然大悟,从而意识到这件看上去几近不有可能的事或许并非不有可能。These three things don’t happen all at once, right?这三个要素会一下子都经常出现,对吧?That’s right. So in some cases one of these is easy and the others are hard. Sometimes we will think we have a bead on two or even three of these things, but after awhile one of them will fall away.是这样。

因此,在某些情况下寻找其中一个要素较为更容易,而寻找另外两个较为艰难。有时候我们实在早已寻找了其中两个,甚至三个要素都已不具备,但一段时间后,其中一个就不会消失。Take Loon [the Google X project to deliver Internet connectivity worldwide through high-altitude balloons], for example. This was super obvious. There are 5 billion people in the world who don’t have Internet c千亿体育游戏官网onnections, and there’s very little that would cause the world to be more at peace, more prosperous than getting the other 5 billion people on the planet connected.以Loon项目[通过高空气球在全球范围内获取网络连接]为事例,这三个要素非常明显。

全球有50亿人上没法网。就增进世界和平、兴旺而言,还有什么事业需要与为50亿人获取网际网路渠道比起呢?Very generally, doing this from balloons rather than from satellites sort of has the form of a radical solution.十分笼统地谈,用气球而不是卫星来构建这个目标可以却是一种保守的解决方案。And so we went through a process for almost a year where the mantra was not “This is going to work” but “This is not going to work. How can we discover why this won’t work as fast as possible so that we can discard this and move on to something else?” And it was only having tried rigorously for a year and having failed to fail many times in a row that we got to the point where we were starting to take this project really seriously.因此,在近一年的时间中,我们的工作并不是证明“这行得通”,而是证明“这权宜之计,以及我们怎样才能尽早找到为什么它权宜之计?这样就可以退出它,然后改向别的项目。”我们希望尝试了一年,倒数告终了很多次,然后才开始认真对待这个项目。

You have a rapid-eval team. Can you talk a little bit about how it works?你有一个较慢评估团队。能讲解一下它是如何运作的吗?There are two ends of a continuum [for tackling moon shots]. On one end of the continuum—you could just call this the “savant” model—you pick a small number of things to do, and you’re determined to do them from the beginning, and you’d better be right because you decided you’re going to do them. On the other end of the spectrum—you could think of this as the “funnel” perspective—at the beginning you have a huge number of things that you’re not taking very seriously and that you’re hoping to throw out with relatively little work. And the farther you get into the funnel, the more work it may take to throw out something.[就处置“登月”项目来说,]这就像一个统一体的两端。你可以把其中一端称作“专家”模式。


对于另一端,你可以把它想象成一个“细管”。在细管顶部有大量的项目,我们并不想去尤其严肃地对待,而且我们也期望在回避这些项目时投放较较少的精力;然而,就越相似细管底部,回避就就越费力。So this is a team of maybe eight or so polymaths who are exceptionally bright over a broad range. They tend to be makers, so they are not uncomfortable prototyping. They’re run by a guy named Rich DeVaul. They act in a fairly chamber music-like way, where for each thing that someone is working on, everyone else will just pitch in.这个团队约有八个人,他们大都博学多才,而且在众多领域都甚有建树。他们更加不愿动手参予,因此制作完整模型对他们来说不是什么难事。


该团队的负责人是里奇o德沃尔。他们的工作方式类似于室内演奏——当有人在专门从事某一项目时,其他人都会为其获取一臂之力。And then Rich DeVaul also runs the Design Kitchen for us, which is sort of a tech shop on steroids. It’s a rapid prototyping facility, and it makes sense that these two things are together.里奇o德沃尔还负责管理我们的Design Kitchen项目,这是个加强版的技术工作室。

它能很快制作出有完整模型,因此让里奇同时掌理Design Kitchen和Google X是合情合理的。With Larry Page, you’ve got your savant, too.有了拉里o佩奇,你也就有了自己的专家。Well, we have both, right? We are very fortunate to be in a situation where two of the planet’s recognized savants, Larry and Sergey, are here. There are times when they say, “Trust me on this one.” And that does skip parts of the funnel process. But that doesn’t mean that we aren’t otherwise driving the funnel process.我们有两位专家,不是吗?我们十分幸运地,作为这个星球上普遍认为的专家,拉里和谢尔盖都在这儿。


Is there a way to institutionalize or scale this process? How far can it scale?有办法让这项工作沦为制度或者不断扩大规模吗?它的规模能有多大?We clearly have scaled in the sense that there’s a lot more going on here than there was two years ago. I do believe that making a factory for innovation, a moon-shot factory, is possible. I’m not saying that we’ve done a perfect job here so far, but I do think that that’s possible.很显著,我们早已不断扩大了规模,因为和两年前比起,现在我们这里展开的项目要非常少。我显然坚信,创建一个创意工厂,也就是“登月”工厂,是不切实际的。这并不是说道到现在为止我们的工作已渐趋极致,但我知道指出它是不切实际的。



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